Market Whims vs. Data Wins: Building an Economy-Proof Business During the 3-Year Rate Low

TL;DR

• The Opportunity: Mortgage rates are hovering around a 3-year low of ~6.0%, triggering a 40% surge in refinance applications in the past couple weeks.
• The Reality: Consumers have more choices in 2026, with housing inventory up 20% over one year ago, according to NAR. However, the Compass-Anywhere merger has created a global tech giant designed to capture your clients.
• The Play: Use Fello's Data Enrichment and Lead Scores to identify motivated homeowners before they respond to generic corporate marketing.
• The Goal: Move from reacting to headlines to building a consistent 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-month pipeline that works regardless of rate fluctuations.

The past few weeks have been wild: Like many agents or loan officers, you were probably scrolling through the news and then you saw a headline that should change your year — mortgage rates hit a 3-year low of 6.06%. You felt a brief surge or elation, then immediately followed by the harrowing thought: "I should probably call my database."

But here’s the thing. By the time rates drop, it’s too late to call. The recent 40% increase in refi applications shows that homeowners are watching the market — and they refi’d with the LO who had already warmed them up and showed how their services could benefit them. They’re not waiting for you to cold call and say, “Hey, do you want to save some money?”

Ideally, you would have been reaching out and nurturing them months ago, so when the right time came (e.g. two weeks ago), YOU were the agent or LO they called.

Trust us, we feel the frustration. And we know the problem isn't your work ethic; it's your visibility. Most agents and LOs are busy and therefore, reactive — they wait for the market to move, then scramble to catch up. But savvy real estate and mortgage pros know that market shifts aren't just news; they're data-driven signals that tell you exactly where to focus your time.

Here’s how to take advantage:

Making the Most of Real Estate’s Top Headlines

Recent data is a perfect storm for real estate and mortgage pros:

• The 6.06% Catalyst: This isn’t just a number; it’s a psychological green light. The 40% week-over-week jump in refi apps proves homeowners are finally ready to touch their equity. Additionally, rates appear to be going even lower. According to a Google search (on 1/28/2026), rates for 30-Year Fixed mortgages range from 5.9% to 6.18%.
• The Inventory Thaw: National inventory is up roughly 20% over last year, according to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The “lock-in effect” is breaking, but sellers are still selective and cautious.
• The Consolidation: The Compass-Anywhere merger recently closed, creating the world's largest residential brokerage with a $1.6 billion tech-driven arsenal. They are coming for your sphere. If you aren't providing specific value, their automated platforms will.

Strategy 1: Capture the Refi Surge (Mortgage Professionals)

The News: Refi applications jumped 40% in recent weeks because homeowners carrying rates over 7% finally see a path to savings.

The Play: Use Fello’s Data Enrichment to fill in missing information about your contacts, like mortgage rate and estimated equity. Instead of calling everyone, filter your database for contacts with a Current Interest Rate above 7%. You can further narrow this audience by additionally filtering contacts with a Lead Score of 80+.

The Fello Edge: Launch an Automated Workflow to email this specific high-rate segment. While others are cold-calling, you're sending personalized savings math directly to the people who need it most. This will also help build your pipeline regardless of whether there’s another rate drop or not.

Strategy 2: Activate On-the-Fence Sellers (Real Estate Agents)

The News: Inventory is up 20% year over over, meaning buyers have more choices, but potential sellers still need a reason to list in a selective market.

The On the Fence Play: Use Fello’s Lead Score to find people who have high engagement but haven't listed yet. This AI-powered feature tracks property, mortgage, and behavioral data in real-time. A higher Lead Score is usually a solid indicator that someone is showing signs they’re looking to sell. These homeowners need your help to stand out in a market that is suddenly much more crowded with competition than it was a year ago.

The Move-Up Play: With more choices (the 20% inventory bump) and lower rates (5.9% – 6.18%), this is the first time in years that Move-Up buyers have leverage. Use Fello’s Data Enrichment to find your past clients with high equity; they are the ones best positioned to navigate this specific inventory surge.

To target more specific sellers in either play, layer on additional filters, such as:

• Time in Home = 10+ years
• Current Interest Rate = > 7%
• Estimated Equity = $100,000

The Fello Edge: Use Ask AI to get an instant summary of that lead's activity. Walk into the call knowing exactly what they’ve been looking at, what their home is worth, their equity, and how a lower mortgage rate helps them afford their next move. Remember the words of coach Tom Ferry, “If the thing you love most about your home is the rate, we need to talk.”

Strategy 3: Defensive Dominance (Brokerage & Team Leaders)

The News: The Compass-Anywhere merger means your past clients are now being targeted by a global mega-brokerage tech platform.

The Play: Monitor your Property Intelligence Report. This dashboard shows you every contact in your database who lists with you — or another agent.

The Fello Edge: Use Smart Send and Smart Content to deliver automated, high-value market trends and home value updates at the right time, always (with basically zero effort from you). Smart Content dynamically updates the message in emails and postcards to what is resonating most with homeowners, while Smart Send sends the messages at the right time, based on the contact’s signals and other data. This ensures your clients look to you as the expert long before a competitor's AI nudges them.

Conclusion: Stop Relying on Market Whims

You shouldn't have to wait for a 3-year rate low to grow your business. Fello is the system that empowers you to build a market-proof 30-day, 3-, 6-, or 9-month (or longer) pipeline.

Combined with Fello’s real-time alerts every time a contact meets your specific Segment parameters (e.g. Contacts with a Lead Score of 85+ who have been in their homes for 10+ years), you aren't just reacting to the news — you're getting in the door before the news even breaks.

The market just gave you a gift. Use Fello to make sure you're the one who opens it.

Ready to Own the Pivot?

Current Customers: Reach out to your Success Manager or email success@fello.ai to for assistance setting up Segments to take advantage of recent news.

Ready to Upgrade? If you're ready to stop chasing and start uncovering, Book a Demo to see how Fello can find the 50–70 warm leads hiding in your database right now.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How does Fello know a homeowner’s interest rate?
A: Through Data Enrichment, Fello automatically fills in loan data, including current interest rates and remaining balances, for the contacts in your CRM.

Q: What if I only have an email address for a lead?
A: Our Data Enrichment takes those email-only leads (like old buyer inquiries) and matches them to their current home address, unlocking their equity and mortgage data.

Q: Can I automate my response to these rate drops?
A: Yes. Fello’s Smart Content uses AI to dynamically update and optimize your emails to align with current market trends, ensuring your outreach is always timely and relevant.